SpyCloud Unveils Top 10 Cybersecurity Predictions Poised to Disrupt Identity Security in 2027

Key Findings

• The cybercriminal supply chain continues to transform, with new specialized roles emerging to enable cybercrime at scale.

• Threat actor communities will fragment, evolve, and get younger, with an influx of teen cybercriminals using plug-and-play attack kits.

• The non-human identity (NHI) explosion will fuel hidden risks, as machine credentials proliferate across cloud environments with less protection than human-based credentials.

• Insider threats will be fueled by M&A, malware, and human error, with the "human element" remaining a weak point in proactive defense.

• AI-enabled cybercrime has only just gotten started, with bad actors using AI to craft better malware, more believable phishing, and quickly triage vulnerable environments.

• Attackers will find creative ways to bypass multi-factor authentication (MFA), using tactics like residential proxies, anti-detect browsers, and Adversary-in-the-Middle (AitM) attacks.

• Vendors and contractors will continue to be a preferred attack vector, requiring organizations to treat third-party exposed identities with the same rigor as employee accounts.

• Synthetic identities will get smarter and harder to spot, as criminals assemble fake identities from real, stolen data and enhance them with AI-generated personas and deepfakes.

• Distractions like combolists and "megabreaches" will obscure real threats, as criminals repackage already-exposed data to generate hype and fear.

Background

SpyCloud, the leader in identity threat protection, has released its report "The Identity Security Reckoning: 2025 Lessons, 2026 Predictions," outlining 10 of the top trends that will shape the cyber threat landscape in the coming year. The predictions are based on observed and analyzed cybercrime activities from the past year, as well as SpyCloud's proprietary research and recaptured identity intelligence.

"Identity misuse is threaded throughout nearly every trend outlined in the report, from malware-driven session hijacking to synthetic identities and exposed non-human credentials," said Damon Fleury, SpyCloud's Chief Product Officer. "As attackers exploit this expanding footprint, organizations will be forced to rethink how they detect, respond to, and prevent identity threats across their entire ecosystem."

The Cybercriminal Supply Chain Continues to Transform

• Malware-as-a-Service and Phishing-as-a-Service will remain core enablers of cybercrime, but 2026 will bring new "specialized roles" in the criminal economy that will make it easier for bad actors to operate at scale and with startup-like efficiency.

• These specialized roles include infrastructure providers, tool developers, access brokers, and even support services.

Threat Actor Communities Will Fragment, Evolve, and Get Younger

• Law enforcement crackdowns and platform policy changes will continue pushing threat actors from darknet forums to mainstream apps.

• The influx of teen cybercriminals experimenting with plug-and-play attack kits for clout, profit, or curiosity is particularly alarming.

• 2025 was a big year for exposing Chinese cybercrime tactics, a trend expected to continue in 2026 alongside the rise of Latin America as a new hotbed for fraud and organized threat activity.

The Non-Human Identity (NHI) Explosion Will Fuel Hidden Risks

• The proliferation of AI tools, APIs, OAuth tokens, and service accounts, known as NHIs, in cloud environments is creating stealthy entry points for attackers and serious compliance gaps for enterprises.

• These machine credentials often lack protections found more commonly in human-based credentials, like multi-factor authentication (MFA) and device fingerprinting.

Insider Threats Will Be Fueled by M&A, Malware, and Missteps

• In 2026, security teams will grapple with risks from compromised users, employment fraud from nation-state bad actors, and M&A activity that introduces inherited vulnerabilities and identity access sprawl.

• The "human element" will continue to be a weak point in proactive defense.

AI-Enabled Cybercrime Has Only Just Gotten Started

• In 2026, AI will increasingly be used by bad actors to craft better malware, more believable phishing, and quickly triage vulnerable environments, increasing the overall risk to enterprises.

Attackers Will Find Creative Ways Around MFA

• This year, SpyCloud found that 66% of malware infections bypassed endpoint protections.

• Expect to see more trending methods used to bypass MFA and other session defenses, such as residential proxies, anti-detect browsers, and Adversary-in-the-Middle (AitM) attacks.

Vendors and Contractors Will Test Enterprise Defenses

• Vendors and contractors continue to be a preferred attack vector to access enterprises.

• In 2026, organizations will need to treat third-party and contractor exposed identities with the same rigor as employee accounts, especially in tech, telecom, and software supply chains.

Synthetic Identities Will Get Smarter and Harder to Spot

• Criminals are assembling fake identities from real, stolen data and enhancing them with AI-generated personas and deepfakes to defeat verification checks.

• With banks already flagging synthetic identity fraud as a top concern, expect this to become a front-page issue in 2026.

Distractions Like Combolists and "Megabreaches" Will Obscure Real Threats

• Expect more viral headlines touting "billions of records leaked" even as many stem from recycled data found in combolists or infostealer logs.

• While older, unremediated data can still cause risk for organizations, these events often trigger widespread concern and divert attention away from more immediate, actionable threats.

Sources

• https://securityonline.info/spycloud-unveils-top-10-cybersecurity-predictions-poised-to-disrupt-identity-security-in-2026/

• https://hackread.com/spycloud-unveils-top-10-cybersecurity-predictions-poised-to-disrupt-identity-security-in-2026/

• https://spycloud.com/newsroom/spycloud-unveils-top-10-cybersecurity-2026-predictions/